May 15, 2008

Barack on faithlessness

Filed under: politics, religion, obama, election — k @ 3:14 pm

“Given the increasing diversity of America’s population, the dangers of sectarianism have never been greater. Whatever we once were, we are no longer just a Christian nation; we are also a Jewish nation, a Muslim nation, a Buddhist nation, a Hindu nation, and a nation of nonbelievers.

-Barack Obama, June 2006 (boldface mine)

I was introduced to this quote by a document, ironically, titled Barack On Faith. In it, he lays out a careful recognition of God and faith, of inclusion among faiths, and of separation of church and state in respecting faiths. At the bottom, it includes a mention not only of the nation’s different faiths, but also specifically mentions those of no faith.

Sure, David Silverman over at AA’s NoGodBlog takes issue with Obama’s repeated use of the cross and his own faith in his campaign, and hints of using his faith as evidence of his morality. But this overlooks the big picture (which he also points out) — that despite Obama using his faith in his campaign, none of the other frontrunners throughout this campaign year — Clinton (member of ur-religious group The Family), McCain (weirdly supersitious), Romney (Mormon) — have been nearly as recognizant of atheists.

Do Google searches for “Atheists for Hillary” versus “Atheists for Obama” and you’ll see the forest beyond the handful of trees.

May 8, 2008

tick tick tick pt 2

Filed under: politics, government, obama, election — k @ 10:11 am

Yesterday I said that Clinton could stop Obama from getting the nomination if she got 59% of remaining contests and remaining supderdelegates. Well, today, with some superdelegate updates, that’s not quite enough.

Also, it’s pretty unlikely. To date, Clinton has 51.2% of the pledged superdelegates. Assuming she maintains that percentage (which, again, the recent trend does not support this) of superdelegates, she needs 70% of remaining contests to stop Obama. Not to win, mind you, but to stop Obama from tying it up. (She’d need 86% to tie it up herself.)

Let’s take the possibility I alluded to, that Clinton already has the remaining 270 supers in her pocket, waiting to be dropped like a bomb on the primary campaign. Then she would only need 40% of the remaining contests to win. Is that likely? Not sure. The trend of super endorsements is still higher for Obama lately… most of Clinton’s super endorsements were early as she was an early frontrunner. But the continued silence of the remaining supers is getting unnerving.

Just for fun, lets say the remaining supers are in Obama’s pocket. Then the game is over. In fact, with as few as 74% (200) of supers on his side, the game is over.

May 7, 2008

tick tick tick

Filed under: politics, government, obama, election — k @ 10:52 am

This delegate calculator at CNN is enlightening (and fun to boot).

CNN Delegate Calculator

Through this, we can learn the following:

  • HRC needs 74% of remaining states and superdelegates to win the nomination.
  • HRC needs 66% of remaining states and superdelegates to beat Obama.
  • HRC needs 59% of remaining states and superdelegates to prevent Obama from getting the nomination.

Scenario #1 is incredibly unlikely. Scenario #2 is highly improbable but believable. So my guess is, at this point, given her numbers, given her track record to date, she’s now banking on scenario #3 — just keep Obama from getting the nomination, and hope for a Hail Mary (like seating Michigan and Florida delegates, or flipping a ton of O delegates) in order to prevail.

But with Hillary currently slipping in the superdelegate fight and even bleeding superdelegates, she’s unlikely to win a majority of the remaining players, unless she already has such a majority up her sleeve, sitting quiet until she needs them.

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